What a Year! What a Year!

BY CARTER E. ANTHONY, CFA

 

My grandson, Burk Brown, played defensive back/linebacker and occasionally wide receiver for the Bayside Academy Admirals of Daphne.

His parents, Laura and Allan Brown, were kind enough to take me to an away game at Selma-Southside.

The play-by-play announcer was a local radio personality.  During the first half, Bayside methodically built a commanding lead conservatively running the ball with a pass play thrown in as needed. After halftime, the Southside boys came out throwing the ball all over the field scoring touchdown after touchdown.

The Southside bleachers erupted and Mr. Radio coined the phrase, “What a Game, What a Game!”  In the end, Bayside won by a slim margin. Selma-Southside fans were happy because of the second half show and Bayside was happy because we won.

I can only think of “What a Year, What a Year!” when reflecting upon the 12 months of 2024. On Dec. 16, 2023, Forbes wrote the “Ten Expectations of 2024”.

These are “Expectations”, not projections or predictions, the first of which is that 2024 will be a year like no other. It will change the world.

First up is Artificial Intelligence (AI) which will be the biggest style change in history. The study of Artificial Intelligence has been around 50 years but only in the last few years has it become commercially viable.

Has there been a financial news report in 2024 that has not mentioned Artificial Intelligence? A connected “Expectation” was Quantum Computing which will make today’s commercial computers seem like handheld calculators.

The companies involved, called the Magnificent 7, are 30% of the 24% return of the S&P 500 this year.

Additional “Expectations” include Near-Shoring which, caused somewhat by illegal immigration, is the growing friendship between the United States, Central and South America.

I’ve questioned our spending so much time and money in the Mideast when more might be gained by helping our neighbors, solving the Cuban Crisis.

In transportation, we do not yet have driverless cars but we do have driverless trucks and tractors.

The writer expected 600,000 layoffs in the Tech Sector in 2024 due to improved technology but he expected those laid-off to simply be moved to another tech purpose as it improves and grows.

In the work area, he expected the four day work week, some of which I experienced in banks years ago.  They were there all five days but only worked three or four.

And, finally, we get to politics. The writer said, “Watch Out!” Could he have been more prescient? What a Year we had in politics.

An incumbent president steps down, his party nominates a candidate who had never won a primary.

The other runs a candidate without opposition and has multiple felony convictions.  What a year in politics! So much more could be said.

As we close out the year, we have had a totally unexpected run in the stock market.  Year-to-date, the Dow Jones is up 13.67%; the S&P 500, with the Magnificent 7 tech stocks, is up 24.34%; and the NASDAQ, mostly tech, is up 31.6%.

The two-year U. S. Treasury yielded 4.37% one-year ago and 4.31% at the Dec. 20, 2024, close.

The 10 year U. S. Treasury yielded 3.88% one-year ago and 4.52% at Friday’s close, losing ground.

The price of gold per ounce on Jan. 1, 2024, was $2,062.90. On Dec. 20, 2024, it was $2,628.70, an increase of 27.46%.

To my readers, thank you for your kind comments during 2024.  I enjoy writing this monthly piece and I hope you get something out of it.

From my family to yours, I hope you had a very Merry Christmas and wish you a Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year!